Developing the Theory and Practice of Epidemiological Forecasting

Mission

Epidemiological forecasting is critically needed for decision-making by public health officials, commercial and non-commercial institutions, and the general public. The DELPHI group focuses on developing the technological capability of epi-forecasting, and its role in decision making, both public and private.

Our long term vision is to make epidemiological forecasting as universally accepted and useful as weather forecasting is today. As was the case with weather forecasting, this will likely take several decades. In the shorter term, we select high value epidemiological forecasting targets (currently Influenza and Dengue); create baseline forecasting methods for them; establish metrics for measuring and tracking forecasting accuracy; estimate the limits of forecastability for each target; and identify new sources of data that could be helpful to the forecasting goal.

We produce weekly forecasts of influenza activity in the US in real-time. You can see our current and historical forecasts here!

Members


Roni Rosenfeld
Homepage


Ryan Tibshirani
Homepage


Logan Brooks


Sangwon (Justin) Hyun


David Farrow

We are part of a large University of Pittsburgh-based MIDAS National Center of Excellence, which includes epidemiologists, virologists, public health experts, medical doctors specialized in infectious disease, legal and economic experts, and computationalists.

Documents

Projects

Bibliography

We maintain a list of publications relating to epi-forecasting here.